Thursday, September 17, 2009

Optimists now exceeds pessimists

Yep, NZ Ski operators sure have - Thanks Kev!

The latest Tourism Industry Monitor has released some encouraging results this week. For the first time since the monitor began in March 2009, the number of optimists have exceeded the number of pessimists.

Kiwi ski operators are extremely grateful for Mr K Rudd's $900-a-person economic stimulus earlier this year that helped subsidise the Kiwi ski holidays of many Australians. Cheers Kev!

Tourism operators have high hopes that the Australian market can continue to perform and that Kiwis will start to come out of hibernation with the warmer weather. There still appears to be less certainty with long haul markets. 

It could be said that some optimism is being generated from flattering comparative monthly tourism figures that are now being compared to a low base when tourism activity started to decline towards the end of last year. 

Tourism is a funny business that survives on eternal optimism. The mere whiff of positive numerosity within the industry seems to generate a life of its own. 

A summary of results from the Tourism Industry Monitor:
  • In the past 3 months (Jun-Aug) industry demand has fallen 1.4% while profitability has fallen 2.4%. This is an improvement in performance relative to May-Jul. 
  • In the next 3 months (Sep-Nov) industry demand is expected to fall by 0.4% and profitability is expected to fall 1.3%.
  • 44% of respondents expect seasonally adjusted demand to improve in the next 3 months compared with 38% last month and 23% the month before. 
  • 41% of respondents expect seasonally adjusted demand to fall in the next 3 months compared with 42% last month and 50% the month before.
  • The increase in optimism is being driven by three factors: 
  1. A strong and long ski season.
  2. The natural drop off in international visitor arrivals during this period which allows the growth in the domestic and Australian markets to dominate.
  3. Tourism activity began to decline towards the end of 2008; hence the predicted changes are coming off a low base.
  • The outlook for the next 3 months is neutral/mildly positive for the upper and lower regions of the South Island and neutral/mildly negative for the Canterbury RTO.
  • The pattern is reversed in the North Island with a neutral/mildly positive outlook for the central region and a neutral/mildly negative outlook for the upper and lower regions.

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