The Tourism Industry Monitor is an initiative by the Ministry of Tourism that monitors the performance of the tourism sector, including the outlook for the next three months. The August edition has just been released and provides some interesting results.
The full survey can be viewed at www.covec.co.nz/TIM.
A summary of the results is as follows:
In the past 3 months (May-Jul) industry demand has fallen 3.0% (seasonally adjusted) while profitability has fallen 4.1%. This is an improvement in performance relative to Apr-Jun. In the next 3 months (Aug-Oct) industry demand is expected to fall by 1.1% (seasonally adjusted) and profitability is expected to fall 3.6%.
38% of respondents expect seasonally adjusted demand to improve in the next 3 months compared with 23% last month and 17% the month before. 42% of respondents expect seasonally adjusted demand to fall in the next 3 months compared with 50% last month and 60% the month before. This indicates a gradual increase in optimism in recent months.
The increase in optimism is being driven by two factors:
(1) the expectation of a strong ski season; and
(2) the natural drop off in international visitor arrivals during the winter months which allows the expected growth in the domestic and Australian markets to dominate.
The outlook for the next 3 months is relatively positive in the South Island due to the expectation of a strong ski season. There is less optimism in the North Island: the Lower North Island is expecting a drop in demand of 0-4%, the Central North Island is expecting a drop of 1-6%; and the Upper North Island is expecting a drop of 2-6%.
